The iPhone for Verizon is looming on the horizon, prompting many Verizon subscribers to rant and rave about how excited they are to pick one up. “It’ll be so great,” they say. “It’s finally coming to my carrier! Now I don’t have to switch to AT&T; Apple is so much better than Android; did you know their app market is over 300,000 applications?; the screen is so pretty!; and they actuallyapprove their applications; and it’s…” and they go on like this for hours. This prompts those looking at the Google and Android war to wonder at whether or not the Verizon iPhone will kill Google’s narrow lead in the smartphone market.
Well, according to the post over at Google Watch, we can expect a pretty massive bump — somewhere between nine and 15 million units sold, specifically. That’s a pretty fair chunk (10 to 15%) of the current Verizon subscriber base. Additionally, we have the iPhone 5 on the horizon, ready to jump at us for the summer. The general consensus is, yes, Google will lose its 1% market share lead, at least for the time being. But will they be demolished?
The reality is, many of the people who care enough about the iPhone to spend hundreds of dollars on it already cared enough to switch to AT&T to get the device. The exception is found largely in those who live in areas where their choice in carriers is limited, or the chunk of subscribers who are ready for an upgrade — some of which have undoubtedly been holding out for an iPhone to make its way over to Verizon. One of the key things to remember here is, while there will be some cannibalization, not all of it will be of the Android alternatives; it’s not like those 10 million iPhones sold will be subtracted from Google’s platform.
