In 34 of 37 countries surveyed by Pew Research Center, more people expect AI to lead to fewer jobs than more jobs over the next 20 years.
Pew published the report on Sept. 17. Across all 37 countries, a median of 46% said AI will lead to fewer jobs in their country and 9% said more jobs. Another 25% said they weren’t sure.
Expecting fewer jobs is more common in high-income countries than in middle-income ones, and so is awareness of AI. The country-by-country results give you a read on how much people in each market say they’ve heard about AI and what they expect from it.
Pew surveyed 42,151 adults in 36 countries between Feb. 8 and May 13. The U.S. figures come from two separate surveys of American adults.
Job-Loss Expectations Are Higher In Wealthier Countries
A median of 55% of adults across 18 high-income countries say AI will lead to fewer jobs in their country over the next 20 years, Pew reports. Across 18 middle-income countries, the median is 36%.
The report sorts countries using World Bank income groups. A median is the middle value among the countries in each group.
People in middle-income countries were more likely to say they weren’t sure, at a median of 34% against 22% in high-income countries.
The report also compares each country’s result with its GDP per capita and gives a correlation of 0.60. Australia and South Korea had the highest shares expecting fewer jobs, at 76% each, followed by the U.S. at 71%. The report calls Singapore an outlier. GDP per capita there is close to $100,000, and 46% expect fewer jobs.
A correlation means two measures tend to rise together across countries. It doesn’t show that national wealth causes people to expect fewer jobs.
The U.S. share is up from 64% in August 2024, a figure first published last month.
Awareness Of AI Is Higher In The Same Countries
A median of 50% of adults in high-income countries say they have heard or read a lot about AI, compared with 27% in middle-income countries. The awareness analysis reports a correlation of 0.74 between GDP per capita and that share. The share ranges from 56% in Japan to 4% in Bangladesh.
In around half of the countries surveyed, people who have heard a lot about AI are more likely than others to say it will lead to fewer jobs. People with less awareness are generally more likely to be unsure.
On a separate question about AI in daily life, the report found that in many countries people with higher awareness tend to feel more optimistic.
Views On Inequality And Overall Sentiment
A median of 35% in high-income countries say AI will widen the gap between rich and poor in their country, compared with 22% in middle-income countries.
On AI’s growing use in daily life, a median of 40% in high-income countries say they are more concerned than excited, against 31% in middle-income countries. The report says concern and excitement are far less tied to GDP per capita than views on jobs or inequality.
South Koreans are among the most likely to expect fewer jobs, yet 18% say they are more concerned than excited and 61% say they are equally concerned and excited.
Why This Matters
Pew’s country-level results give marketers a snapshot of how AI awareness and expectations differ across countries. They don’t show how people respond to AI features, products, or advertising. High-income countries have higher median shares for both AI awareness and expectations of job loss.
It also doesn’t show that wealth or awareness causes pessimism. I covered Pew’s U.S. survey in June, which found about half of U.S. adults using AI chatbots while more expected AI to hurt society than help it.
Looking Ahead
The share of adults who have heard a lot about AI rose in 11 of the 25 countries also surveyed last year, led by Nigeria at 14 percentage points. Middle-income countries also have the largest shares who say they’re unsure how AI will affect jobs, and the report says opinion “may still be taking shape.”
Featured Image: Net Vector/Shutterstock
